How to Read Absorption Rate: What It Actually Tells Dublin-Area Buyers and Sellers Right Now

Every fall, clients ask me some version of the same question: "Is this a buyer's market or a seller's market?" It's a fair question, but it usually comes from reading a headline rather than looking at the one number that actually answers it -- absorption rate. If you only take one tool away from this post, take this one. It's simple enough to calculate on your own, and it will tell you more about your specific street or school district than any national news segment ever will.

What Absorption Rate Actually Measures

Absorption rate answers a single question: at the current pace of sales, how many months would it take to sell off every home currently listed for sale in a given area? You calculate it by dividing the number of active listings by the average number of homes sold per month over a recent stretch -- three to six months is typical, to smooth out any one unusual month. The result is expressed in "months of supply."

Example: if Dublin's 43017 zip code has 90 active listings and homes have been selling at a pace of 30 per month, that's 90 divided by 30, or 3 months of supply. That's the whole calculation -- no spreadsheet required, though I build one for clients who want to track it over time.

What the Number Means

Months of supply map fairly consistently onto market conditions:

• Under 3 months of supply: a seller's market. Buyers are competing for a thin pool of listings, and well-priced homes often draw multiple offers.

• 3 to 6 months of supply: a balanced market. Neither side has a structural advantage, and negotiating leverage depends more on the specific property than the market as a whole.

• Over 6 months of supply: a buyer's market. Sellers who want to move a home need to be realistic on price and condition, because buyers have more to choose from.

Central Ohio as a whole, and Dublin-area suburbs in particular, spent much of the past few years solidly in seller's-market territory -- some pockets of Muirfield Village and Powell saw very tight supply at the peak. That has eased through 2026 as mortgage rates have stayed elevated and more sellers have listed, nudging several local zip codes closer to the balanced range I described in an earlier post about this fall's rate environment. The direction of the shift matters as much as the number itself: a market moving from tight supply toward a looser one is loosening, even if the new number still sounds tight compared to the national picture.

Why It Matters More Than a National Headline

Absorption rate is local by nature, and that's exactly why it's useful. The number for greater Columbus tells you very little about a specific subdivision in Hilliard or a price band in New Albany. A colonial in Hilliard's Heritage Park area can be moving at a very different pace than an estate home in Muirfield Village, even though both sit inside the same county. When I run this calculation for clients, I pull it at the zip code and sometimes the price-tier level, because that's the version of the number that actually applies to the house they're buying or selling.

How to Calculate It Yourself

You don't need MLS access to get a rough version of this number. Start with active listing counts from any major listing portal filtered to your neighborhood or zip code, then look at how many homes have gone under contract or sold there in the past 60 to 90 days, averaged to a monthly figure. Divide listings by that monthly sales pace. It won't be as precise as a pull straight from the local MLS, but it will get you close enough to understand whether you're negotiating from a position of leverage or competing for limited inventory.

If you're trying to figure out where your specific street, school district, or price range actually sits right now -- in Dublin, Hilliard, Powell, Muirfield Village, Westerville, Gahanna, or New Albany -- I'm happy to pull the real numbers and walk through what they mean for your timeline. No pressure, just the data laid out plainly so you can make the call that's right for you. Reach out whenever it's useful.